Mad About Movies March Madness Madness Bracket - Round 1

Welcome to the first annual Mad About Movies March Madness Madness! We could think of no better way to kick off our first bracket challenge than by asking you, the listeners, to join us in picking the best basketball movie of all-time. By now, you have no doubt listened to our Selection Sunday episode (if you haven’t, you can find that here or on the podcast platform of your preference) wherein we broke down the 32 applicable basketball movies and seeded the field. From there, I filled in the bracket in a manner befitting the NCAA Selection Committee (that is, I drank a lot of soda and threw darts at a poster board) and now we hand the results over to you. We’ll do this in stages in conjunction with the actual NCAA Tournament so this week, you can vote on the first round then we’ll move on to the Sweet Sixteen, Elite Eight, Final Four, etc. from there. Here’s a quick primer on the first-round matchups.

QUICK NOTE: For a movie to be considered for entrance into this highly prestigious event, at least one of us had to have seen said movie. This unfortunately meant the exclusion of such properties as The Fish That Saved Pittsburgh, Fastbreak, Heaven is a Playground, etc. Apologies to these films and their champions.

THE SHORT SHORTS REGION
(#1) Hoosiers vs (#8) Juwanna Mann

The prohibitive favorite of the tournament, Hoosiers faces a very weak challenger in the form of one of the most offensive and horribly unfunny movies in the history of film, basketball movie or other. If Juwanna Mann wins, I will kill the bracket immediately. You’ve been warned.

(#2) Blue Chips vs (#7) Like Mike
Vegas has decent odds on Like Mike upsetting Shaq and Nick Nolte based solely on recency bias. Blue Chips is not really a good movie but it is a good basketball movie, if that makes sense. Then again, Like Mike has a Dirk Nowitzki cameo and that can’t be underestimated.

(#3) Glory Road vs (#6) The Air Up There
Somewhere between Sweet Home Alabama and The Mysteries of Laura, Josh Lucas looked like he might be a solid B-List movie star in Glory Road, based on the amazing story of the 1979 UTEP basketball team. For its part, The Air Up There features Kevin Bacon trying to play basketball which is unintentionally hilarious.

(#4) The Basketball Diaries vs (#5) Baseketball
It’s always hard to call a 4-5 matchup an “upset” as they are by their very nature close in quality. But were I betting man, I’d throw some money at Baseketball’s upset chances. Steeeeevvvve Perry!

THE SHUTTLESWORTH REGION
(#1) He Got Game vs (#8) Celtic Pride

Someone already contacted us to let us know that Celtic Pride should be a one seed. I can only assume this person was actually involved in the production of Celtic Pride because Celtic Pride is TRASH. He Got Game is the only basketball movie to feature Denzel Washington and that should be enough to get it through the first round at least. (Also, Jesus Shuttlesworth is one of the all-time great character names and that’s worth a few votes.)

(#2) Space Jam vs (#7) High School Musical
Space Jam could’ve easily been a one seed in this tournament if not for some sloppy guard play down the stretch. (How in the world does the final score end up in the mid-70’s when one team features Michael Jordan and the other features a group of intergalactic superstars? Ridiculous!) Despite the late season stumbles, Space Jam enters the tournament as the odds-on favorite while High School Musical is not even a real movie.

(#3) Finding Forrester vs (#6) Air Bud
You can almost smell the upset. (Or maybe that’s the unbathed golden retriever.) Finding Forrester is the VASTLY superior film and features perhaps the only good Sean Connery performance of the 2000’s. But Air Bud features a golden retriever who can magically shoot hoops and apparently a lot of fans who don’t have kids so they haven’t had to watch this recently. A match up for the ages.

(#4) Above the Rim vs (#5) The Pistol
It’s been ages since I’ve seen either of these films but I enjoy a matchup of Tupac and Pistol Pete Maravich. I think Above the Rim wins but almost everyone my age has seen The Pistol at a school or church event a dozen times so maybe nostalgia takes over.

THE HOYLE HUSTLE REGION
(#1) White Men Can’t Jump vs (#8) Thunderstruck

White Men could easily be the number one overall seed in this tournament and Thunderstruck is only NOT the worst movie of the bunch because Juwanna Mann is so awful. You can’t ask much more from a movie than American Treasure Woody Harrelson, peak Wesley Snipes, and lighthearted cons. Not even Kevin Durant’s mother is voting for Thunderstruck.

(#2) Love and Basketball vs (#7) Semi-Pro
L&B should be a prohibitive favorite to move on in this round but Kent’s insistence that Semi-Pro has some funny bits has me worried. I’m counting on our female listeners and anyone who has ever watched Love and Basketball on a date to see us through here.

(#3) Nowitzki: The Perfect Shot vs (#6) Sonicsgate
In a battle of underseen documentaries, I have to believe that Dirk comes out on top. Also, you should know that if Sonicsgate somehow wins, I will personally see that all of your lives are ruined because Dirk Forever.

(#4) Eddie vs (#5) Forget Paris
Eddie is so much worse than Forget Paris as a movie but as a basketball movie, the former destroys the latter. Does Forget Paris feature John Salley in a prominent role? Didn’t think so. Does Forget Paris give Frank Langella leeway to do a really weird Texas (?) accent? Nope. Does Eddie seem increasingly likely to actually happen given James Dolan’s horrific handling of the Knicks over the last decade? YEP. Team Eddie.

THE WINDY CITY REGION
(#1) Hoop Dreams vs (#8) Rebound

Hoop Dreams would have a prominent place in the Greatest Documentaries of All-Time bracket. Rebound only made the list because we ran out of basketball movies. That’s all I need to say, right?

(#2) Teen Wolf vs (#7) Just Wright
There’s no more perplexing movie in this tournament than Teen Wolf. On the one hand, it is not a very good movie (I’m sorry, it isn’t). On the other, it does feature North American Treasure Michael J. Fox playing basketball AS A TEEN WOLF. Which side of this equation wins out?! I think it gets through Just Wright easily but it could be primed for an upset down the line.

(#3) Coach Carter vs (#6) O
This is what makes March Madness so great. Nowhere else would a powerhouse like Samuel L. Jackson face off against a weird mid-major Shakespearian adaptation like O. Coach Carter takes this one but the first half is a lot closer than anyone expects.

(#4) The Other Dream Team vs (#5) The 6th Man
This one hurts me because I love The Other Dream Team and I wish people would get out and see it. But no one has and thus, I think The 6th Man pulls out the upset. (Also, it should be noted that as a kid I rented The 6th Man at least a dozen times from my local Blockbuster.)

RANKING THE X-MEN

Last week on Twitter, we asked our listeners to send us their personal ranking of the X-Men movies and I had some fun looking through the various responses. Instead of simply writing up my own ranking of the films, however, I decided to take this nonsense to another level. I watched all of the X-Men movies over the last week. I examined each movie in great detail, made copious notes, used dry erase markers on the windows of a conference room, etc. and I came up with a conclusive, definitive ranking of every X-Man within the XMCU (X-Men Cinematic Universe, obviously). Why did I do this, you ask? The obvious answer is I am insane. I accept this.

The secondary answer is, I love the X-Men. If you ask me who my favorite superhero is, I’ll answer (truthfully) with Batman, almost as involuntary reflex. But if you ask me which superhero(es) I care about or who I want to see more of, it’s X-Men by a mile. I would gladly give up future Batman movies if it meant I could get a good run of X-Men properties. The X-Men animated series was hugely influential on me as a youth, I collected all the action figures I could get my hands on, and to this day, the only actual comic books I’ve ever read belong in the X-Men universe. So, while the XMCU (X-Men Cinematic Universe, duh) has been a massive roller coaster for 15+ years, I’ll always line up for the next one, attempting to somehow navigate all the various timelines and hoping I’ll get to see my beloved X-Men do something uncanny, as it were.

A few notes on this list.

1.)    I have not seen Logan at the time of this writing so that film does not factor into the decisions herein.
2.)    I excluded Deadpool entirely. I consider Deadpool to be its own universe; “X-Men Adjacent” if you will.
3.)    This list concerns ONLY the films, not the comics, animated series, etc.
4.)    Most importantly, this is not a ranking of every character in the XMCU; rather, it is a ranking of the X-Men within the XMCU. As such, villains are not part of the equation, nor are some of the students who appear in the movies who we may know turn out to be so-and-so somewhere down the line but are not actually so-and-so when we see them.

This process got very, very complicated both in terms of who qualified for consideration and how to quantify their virtues. Ultimately, I decided that to be considered for this list, a character must have at some point suited up as an X-Man and/or been enrolled in or taught at Xavier’s School for Gifted Youngsters. I made exceptions for characters who never EXACTLY suited up or enrolled but who we know later did based on the various timelines (see: numbers 19 and 22, respectively). From there, I attempted to judge each character’s contribution to the X-Men team(s) they worked with, the powers they bring to the table, and the performances of the actors in these roles. This got tricky in a few spots (see: Young Magneto) but this is why I get paid the big bucks (read: “Nothing. I get paid nothing.”) I also made one big exception to all of these rules just because I wanted to and I’m not even sorry about it. All of this left me with 33 X-Men under consideration and they are ranked thusly.

(NOTE: There are myriad spoilers contained within this post as I assume if you’re reading 3,000 words on the XMCU you have, in fact, seen all of the movies in the XMCU or you don’t care about spoilers.)

33. Young Jubilee (Apocalypse)
I always enjoyed Jubilee in the animated series but the character’s presence in the XMCU is limited and she’s left behind by her young compatriots without even being given the chance to show off her powers. (Though to be fair her powers mostly center on creating confetti out of thin air.)

32. Darwin (FC)
Look, Darwin, this ranking is not an indictment of your powers and it’s certainly not an indictment of your courage. But let’s be real, you were in the X-Men for like two hours, you never got a costume, and then you died in a heroic-but-kinda-stupid fashion.

31. Angel (Last Stand)
Of Last Stand’s MANY sins, near the top of the list is Brett Ratner’s casting of Ben Foster, one of the most intense, versatile actors of his generation and turning him into a whiney emo kid whose contribution to the X-Men is negligible at best.

30. Rogue (X1-Last Stand)
When I started this list, I had Rogue much higher up. I loved her in the animated series and her powers are substantial. But you know what I discovered while rewatching these movies? Rogue in the XMCU sucks. She whines constantly, she contributes almost nothing to the team, and she bails on her mutant powers at a time when the X-Men could really use someone with her exact mutant powers. She’s kind of a beating to be honest with you.

29. Colossus (X2 sort of, Last Stand, DOFP)
Deadpool proved that you can, in fact, create a vision of Colossus that works on screen. This should be obvious because Colossus is dope in pretty much every form…except for these movies, wherein he is a meathead with the depth of a dollar bill. He gets a very brief moment in the sun in Days of Future Past but it’s not nearly enough.

28. Angel (FC)
(She is BARELY part of the X-Men precursor but I think she still counts.) Angel turns out to be a decent enough villain as a member of Sebastian Shaw’s crew. But as an X-Man, her contribution to the team is basically her work as an accomplice in the murder of Darwin. That’s not really the sort of character we’re looking for at Xavier’s School for Gifted Youngsters.

27-25. Warpath, Bishop, Sunspot (DOFP)
I quite like Days of Future Past and I’ll not hear your complaints about the film, thanks. But if I did want to pick nits, I would start with the inclusion-but-subsequent-sterilization of some of my favorite mutants from the source material. All of these characters, Bishop in particular, bring outstanding power and presence to the table and each of them gets about 10 seconds on screen in the entirety of the film. Quite the bummer.

24. Banshee (FC)
As a member of a team, Banshee is just fine, I guess. His powers are a bit underwhelming but hey, you need some glue guys to make a team really click. But he is kind of annoying on screen and you can definitely see why he was an easy kill for Trask Industries between First Class and Days of Future Past.

23. Old Beast (Last Stand)
Kelsey Grammar as Beast/Hank McCoy is perfect casting. PERFECT. I’m still shocked that the Rat Man and his crew got this one right. He is horribly underutilized, however, and most of his action sequences are cringeworthy. Beast is the rare X-Man who is more interesting on screen as a mutant human than he is when in action as an X-Man.

22. Angel (Apocalypse)
I know all the “Angel” listings are getting confusing, I’m sorry, it’s not my fault. This version of Angel is solid on screen as one of Apocalypse’s Four Horsemen. I like the interpretation, though at some point I’d like to see him in an X-Men movie as Archangel instead of just Angel so as to further confuse me. He makes for a cool villain but his contribution to the downfall of Apocalypse is small.

21. Blink (DOFP)
I could’ve added Blink to the previous collection of woefully underutilized mutants from Days of Future Past but I think, unlike her compatriots, you do get a decent look at her powers and her importance to the team. Bingbing Fan is very good in this role, too, despite the inherent limitations of never once uttering a line of dialogue on screen.

20. Old Magneto (DOFP)
Let me be clear: Old Magneto is awesome and Ian McKellan is remarkable in the role. The scene in X2 when he realizes his guard has been laced with iron is one of the best pieces of acting I’ve ever seen in a comic book movie. But he’s only an X-Man in Days of Future Past and in the film, he gets only one outstanding-but-limited opportunity to show off his immense power. The rest of the time he’s mostly just being sad.

19. Young Storm (Apocalypse)
This one is similar to Angel (Apocalypse Angel, not First Class or Last Stand Angel and oh my goodness, this is getting confusing) in that the Storm character is pretty great but she’s only an X-Man for a tiny slice of time.

18. Kitty Pryde (Last Stand, DOFP)
Kitty Pryde is one of the very few mutants to come out of Last Stand with even a modicum of dignity leftover. A year before her big break out in Juno, Ellen Page brought some power to a character that very easily could’ve been swallowed up in the mutant overload that is Last Stand. And while her screen presence is relatively trivial in Days of Future Past, her powers are vital to the survival of mutant kind.

17. Ice Man (X2 sort of, Last Stand, DOFP)
Ice Man was a highly sought after action figure when I was a kid and I’ve had an affinity for the character ever since. I’ve always appreciated his introduction in X2 and I think we get a much better second look at him if only a competent director had helmed Last Stand. Days of Future Past gave us our first real glimpse at his power and I love his scenes. I only wish he didn’t spend the bulk of his screen time pining for either Rogue or Kitty Pryde.

16. Havok (FC, DOFP, Apocalypse)
Havok is sort of the median X-Man in my view. His powers are cool and he’s trying to be cocky (always something I’m looking for in my young movie superheroes) but his screen presence just isn’t strong enough to give him a real and lasting impact. He’s solid in First Class but his appearance in Days of Future Past is a glorified cameo and he looks ridiculous in Apocalypse. It’s an admirable showing but nothing special. Basically, his wins-above-replacement is like 1.3.

15. Gambit (Origins: Wolverine)
Okay so here’s where I cheated. Origins isn’t really an X-Men movie, Gambit never technically suits up as an X-Man, and also this movie is very bad. It’s entirely possible that Gambit shouldn’t rank this high even if these other qualifiers weren’t issues. But this is my list and Gambit is my favorite X-Man of all-time and my son is named after another Taylor Kitsch character (Battleship, obviously) and I’ll do what I want, thank you very much.

14-12. Young Cyclops (Apocalypse), Young Jean Grey (Apocalypse), and Young Nightcrawler (Apocalypse)
One of the few aspects of Apocalypse that actually works is the introduction of the youngsters to Xavier’s School for Gifted Youngsters. You get a taste of what could be for a stronger, less lovesick Cyclops could be like (big fan of Ty Sheridan; that kid is going places), a glimpse into the struggle for control that haunts Jean perpetually, and the sublime weirdness of Nightcrawler. They’re not perfect to be sure but they give me some hope for the future of the franchise that would otherwise be missing after Apocalypse.

 11. Cyclops (X1-Last Stand)
This was one of the hardest choices I had to make when putting this list together. I love Cyclops outside of the movies and I think James Marsden was an awesome choice to play him on screen. When Cyclops is engaged, when he’s using his powers and running the show, he can be a force to behold. Unfortunately, most of his screen time is spent brooding over Jean and quarreling with Logan in what is decidedly a one-sided fight. And then he goes out LIKE A CHUMP in Last Stand. I’m actually still a little embarrassed for Cyclops; he deserved a warrior’s death and instead he got…that.

10. Jean Grey (X1, X2, not really an X-Man in Last Stand but Phoenix sort of goes good at the end so I don’t know)
Jean is very similar to Cyclops in these films in that her source material is greater than the sum of what she does on screen. To be fair, her work in X1 and X2 is more impressive than Cyclops as is her contribution to the team. But the Phoenix stuff is…misguided, let’s say. As great as X2 is (gets my vote for the best X-Men movie), in hindsight, Bryan Singer used the Phoenix bullet too early in the series and handing that plan over to Ratner obviously crippled the franchise for a time. Personally, I enjoy Jean Grey as an X-Man but I’ve never been overly impressed with Famke Janssen’s performance out of costume.

9. Nightcrawler (X2)
It is a crying shame that Nightcrawler only got one movie in which to shine. Alan Cumming’s portrayal is awesome and whereas I think Singer missed a bit on the character elements of some of his X-Men, he nailed it on this one. His best scene (the opener of X2 which is fantastic) happens before he joins the team but his contribution to the X-Men is undeniable.

8. Storm (X1-Last Stand, DOFP)
Storm’s role in the XMCU has been up-and-down to say the least. Her powers come and go at times and her presence on screen ranges from, “Best X-Man, Hands Down” to “Relegated to Cheesy One-Liners and Being Insecure.” As a character, she’s a bit lacking most of the time. But as an X-Man, she delivers some of the best moments in the franchise. Her work in DOFP is the cherry on the sundae.

7. Young Beast (FC, DOFP, Apocalypse)
One of the reasons I love Young Beast (and Nicholas Hoult’s performance) is his groundedness. That is to say, I think maybe more so than any other X-Man, Beast/Hank McCoy seems to be the most in touch with reality. For a lot of the X-Men, their out-of-costume issues come across as sulky and moody. Beast, though, handles his emotions in an appropriate way most of the time. “This is a scientific problem so I will address it in a scientific way.” (Apocalypse leads him down a Cyclops-y direction but hopefully we’ve put an end to that.) And when he does unleash the beast (sorry, sorry), it is a sight to behold.

6. Young Magneto (FC, DOFP, Apocalypse)
If this list is “Best Characters in the X-Men Movies”, Fassbender’s Magneto finishes no lower than third. He’s awesome because Fassbender is awesome and he embodies that character so perfectly. But what does he do as an actual member of the X-Men? Mostly he just betrays them over and over again. Strangely, this is not a quality we’re looking for in a superhero troupe if we’re being quite honest. I probably have him too high based on the qualifications but he’s so stinking good on screen, so compelling, that I just couldn’t drop him any further.

5. Young Mystique (FC, DOFP, Apocalypse)
This is likely to be an unpopular choice with some of my compatriots but I think it’s near impossible to argue against Mystique’s importance to the X-Men in her three XMCU appearances. You could make the case that the movies focus TOO much on her because Jennifer Lawrence is a big draw and I might agree with you. This doesn’t diminish her impact, however. She also straddles the line between X-Man and NOT X-Man much better than, say, Magneto.

4. Quicksilver (DOFP, Apocalypse)
I straight up LOVE Quicksilver’s appearances in these movies, limited as they are. He is such a refreshing breath of air and Singer uses him perfectly. Any more and you get tired of his obnoxious energy, any less and you wonder why he’s even in the movies. His importance to the team, too, is invaluable as he pretty much saves every character from death at one point or another.

3. Young Professor Xavier (FC, DOFP, Apocalypse)
I don’t know what it is about James McAvoy but he always has to talk me into his performances. I think maybe I’m still holding on to Wanted and blaming him for how freaking awful that movie is. But you know what? James McAvoy is pretty dope. You can’t replace Patrick Stewart in the chair; you just can’t. So if you’re going to do a take on Professor X, you have to do a completely different interpretation. I think Matthew Vaughn got that when he cast McAvoy to play Young Xavier and McAvoy understands that perfectly. It’s fun to see a brash Xavier in First Class and watch his development into an all-knowing sage through the rest of this run. (But Wanted still sucks and someone needs to be held responsible for this, James.)

2. Professor Xavier (X1-Last Stand, Origins: Wolverine, DOFP)
As good as McAvoy is, though, he can’t touch the O.G. Professor Xavier is one of the most ingenious characters ever created in comic form and Stewart brings him to life brilliantly. The wisdom, the wit, the charm, the PRESENCE… Stewart’s Professor X is perfect on screen. The only problem with his “Greatest X-Men” candidacy is he is perpetually getting knocked out of commission. Poisoned in X1, mentally and physically hijacked in X2, killed dead in Last Stand, etc. I get it, you kinda have to keep taking X out of the equation because he’s too powerful in a battle but it definitely keeps him out of the top spot for me. Stop getting waylaid, Professor!

1. Wolverine (X1-Last Stand, DOFP, Cameos in FC and Apocalypse)
To be frank, this list could’ve been more fun and maybe generate a few more hits if I would’ve gone against the grain and put Wolverine somewhere else in the top 10. But what are you gonna do? Wolverine is the goat. At times the XMCU caters to him too much but it’s because he’s such a compelling character and Hugh Jackman morphs into him so seamlessly. There’s a nuance to the character that is only hinted at with most of the other members of the team (this is aided by the fact that Jackman plays the character in every movie and the writing pushes him to the forefront). Wolverine is cool to be sure but he’s also a tragic figure and you always, ALWAYS, want to know more about him. That’s why we’ve had now three standalone movies centering around him. His brute physicality, his harsh sarcasm, and his cigars are awesome but it’s his history that brings us back time and time again.

2017 Oscar Predictions

As you likely know by now, this weekend brings us The Academy Awards to officially close out the 2016 movie season. I genuinely care about the Oscars. Not in the same way that I care about my kid or Dirk Nowitzki or human rights, you understand, but still, I care. The Oscars cannot and should not define a movie nor an entire year in movies but an Oscar can serve as the cherry on top of the Great Movie Sundae, validation for the movie you love that no one saw, or occasionally a decade of angst over a terrible injustice. We here at Mad About Movies quite enjoy the Academy Awards, partly because of the opportunity it presents us to interact with you (some or all of us will be live tweeting the festivities and of course we’ll record our Oscars postgame episode right after the show ends) and partly because, more than anything else, the Oscars are a celebration of the year in film. So, in preparation for Sunday’s show, we present to you our respective predictions for the eight major awards, as well as a few notes on who we would vote for if given a vote. 

BEST PICTURE
What Will Win: La La Land (all three)
What Should Win: La La Land (Kent), Hell or High Water (Brian), Moonlight (Richard)

Kent: In a year with very little flair when it came to directing or originality, Chazelle paid homage to the classics while using all of today's technology to push the medium further. La La Land represented the best of the best in acting, directing, and cinematography for 2016. 
Richard: If MacGruber isn't eligible--and I looked into it and it is, apparently, not-- I suppose La La Land is a fitting substitute. But, more I think about it, the more I feel that Moonlight is a more definitively 2016 movie. I'm fine with La La Land winning, but I don't know if it represents its era well, both to its credit and detriment.

BEST DIRECTOR
Who Will Win: Damien Chazelle (all three)
Who Should Win: Damien Chazelle (all three)
Brian:
I’m in love with what Barry Jenkins did with Moonlight and any case you want to make for his winning over Chazelle, I’m okay with. But I just can’t overlook Chazelle’s overall vision and the exquisite detail of every single frame of La La Land. 
Kent: Can we just pencil in Chazelle for a Best Director nomination every time he releases a film? His vision is unbelievable. His respect for classic techniques and the timeless quality of filmmaking is extremely refreshing. He should win Best Director for pulling off the opening dance sequence in La La Land alone. 

BEST ACTOR
Who Will Win: Casey Affleck (Kent), Denzel Washington (Brian and Richard)
Who Should Win: Andrew Garfield (Kent), Casey Affleck (Brian), Denzel Washington (Richard)
Kent:
I LOVED Gosling in La La Land, but I keep going back to Garfield's performance in Hacksaw Ridge as my favorite standout performance of the year. I expected a C, and Garfield delievered an A+. Affleck was great, but I felt Andrew Garfield's performance was more of a stretch from what we typically expect from him, especially playing an American soldier with a thick southern accent. 
Richard: I think Denzel narrowly beats out Casey Affleck's performance for me. Denzel is so good that sometimes we don't laude him enough as an actor and simply credit him at a movie star (this is, of course, also true). I think the Academy (thanks to some anti-Casey feelings) will help correct this.
Brian: I think Denzel has this in the bag and while I’m always down with praising him in just about any form imaginable, I think Affleck ran circles around him and every other contender in the field this year. 

BEST ACTRESS
Who Will Win: Natalie Portman (Kent), Emma Stone (Brian and Richard)
Who Should Win: Emma Stone (all three)
Kent:
For some reason, the Oscars LOVE biopics. They also love movies about politics. Combine those two and add in an Oscar nominated actress in Natalie Portman? BOOM! Formula for Oscar gold. But Emma stone was INCREDIBLE in La La Land. She made me weep. And that's a good thing.
Brian: I’m still angry that Amy Adams isn’t in this category for Arrival. Makes zero sense whatsoever. Regardless, I find it hard to believe that this isn’t Stone’s year and deservedly so. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Who Will Win: Mahershala Ali (All three)
Who Should Win: Mahershala Ali (All three)
Richard:
Dev Patel is great in Lion, but isn't that a leading role? Ali delivers the quintessential supporting performance of the year. Mesmerizing.
Brian: There’s this great bit in The Office, maybe season five, in which Michael Scott says to a rival branch manager, “If you so much as harm one hair on Stanley’s head…we will burn this place to the ground.” Richard and I joke about this all the time. It’s such an earnest moment in spite of its insanity. Well, if the Academy gives this award to anyone but Mahershala Ali…we will burn this place to the ground. Ali gave the best performance of the year in any category for my money and it is UNFATHOMABLE that anyone else would come out with the trophy. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Who Will Win: Octavia Spencer (Kent), Viola Davis (Brian and Richard)
Who Should Win: Viola Davis (All three)
Richard:
To me, along with Chazelle, this is the biggest lock of the night--and totally deserved!
Brian: I’m not quite ready to riot over a potential Viola Davis snubbing as I am for Mahershala Ali but it’s very close. In his long, illustrious career, how many people (men or women), have gone toe to toe with Denzel Washington and come out on top? Davis BURIED Denzel in Fences and also she is beautiful and regal and eloquent and I just love her so DON’T SCREW THIS UP, ACADEMY. 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
What Will Win: La La Land (All three)
What Should Win: Hell of High Water (All three)
Kent:
Hard to imagine La La Land not sweeping every single award, especially for Chazelle's sharp and swift writing. But Hell or High Water combined action, suspense, drama, and comedy so well that it was the most memorable script of the year in my opinion.
Richard: I'd love to see Hell or High Water get one win on the evening, and I think this is its best shot. But I think La La Land nabs this one.
Brian: To me, this is the toughest category in the field. 20th Century Women wasn’t my thing but all four of the other contenders have a claim here. I’m 90% sure La La Land comes out with the trophy and can’t complain about that. But Taylor Sheridan’s script for Hell or High Water is an absolute masterwork. 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
What Will Win: Moonlight (All three)
What Should Win: Arrival (Kent and Brian), Moonlight (Richard)
Kent:
Arrival was adapted from a short story into one of the most imaginative science fiction films of all time, but Moonlight brought every emotion into each and every line, and it felt the most authentic and realistic when it came to the dialogue.
Brian: As good as Moonlight is (and while it lurks as a potential La La Land spoiler in several categories), I actually think the script is the “weakest” part. Still an “A”, mind you, but definitely not what I’m going to remember about the film. Arrival, however, is brilliantly written and the distilling of extremely complex concepts into something anyone can understand without losing any of the film’s intelligence is a stroke of genius.