2017 Oscar Predictions

As you likely know by now, this weekend brings us The Academy Awards to officially close out the 2016 movie season. I genuinely care about the Oscars. Not in the same way that I care about my kid or Dirk Nowitzki or human rights, you understand, but still, I care. The Oscars cannot and should not define a movie nor an entire year in movies but an Oscar can serve as the cherry on top of the Great Movie Sundae, validation for the movie you love that no one saw, or occasionally a decade of angst over a terrible injustice. We here at Mad About Movies quite enjoy the Academy Awards, partly because of the opportunity it presents us to interact with you (some or all of us will be live tweeting the festivities and of course we’ll record our Oscars postgame episode right after the show ends) and partly because, more than anything else, the Oscars are a celebration of the year in film. So, in preparation for Sunday’s show, we present to you our respective predictions for the eight major awards, as well as a few notes on who we would vote for if given a vote. 

BEST PICTURE
What Will Win: La La Land (all three)
What Should Win: La La Land (Kent), Hell or High Water (Brian), Moonlight (Richard)
Kent: In a year with very little flair when it came to directing or originality, Chazelle paid homage to the classics while using all of today's technology to push the medium further. La La Land represented the best of the best in acting, directing, and cinematography for 2016. 
Richard: If MacGruber isn't eligible--and I looked into it and it is, apparently, not-- I suppose La La Land is a fitting substitute. But, more I think about it, the more I feel that Moonlight is a more definitively 2016 movie. I'm fine with La La Land winning, but I don't know if it represents its era well, both to its credit and detriment.

BEST DIRECTOR
Who Will Win: Damien Chazelle (all three)
Who Should Win: Damien Chazelle (all three)
Brian: I’m in love with what Barry Jenkins did with Moonlight and any case you want to make for his winning over Chazelle, I’m okay with. But I just can’t overlook Chazelle’s overall vision and the exquisite detail of every single frame of La La Land. 
Kent: Can we just pencil in Chazelle for a Best Director nomination every time he releases a film? His vision is unbelievable. His respect for classic techniques and the timeless quality of filmmaking is extremely refreshing. He should win Best Director for pulling off the opening dance sequence in La La Land alone. 

BEST ACTOR
Who Will Win: Casey Affleck (Kent), Denzel Washington (Brian and Richard)
Who Should Win: Andrew Garfield (Kent), Casey Affleck (Brian), Denzel Washington (Richard)
Kent: I LOVED Gosling in La La Land, but I keep going back to Garfield's performance in Hacksaw Ridge as my favorite standout performance of the year. I expected a C, and Garfield delievered an A+. Affleck was great, but I felt Andrew Garfield's performance was more of a stretch from what we typically expect from him, especially playing an American soldier with a thick southern accent. 
Richard: I think Denzel narrowly beats out Casey Affleck's performance for me. Denzel is so good that sometimes we don't laude him enough as an actor and simply credit him at a movie star (this is, of course, also true). I think the Academy (thanks to some anti-Casey feelings) will help correct this.
Brian: I think Denzel has this in the bag and while I’m always down with praising him in just about any form imaginable, I think Affleck ran circles around him and every other contender in the field this year. 

BEST ACTRESS
Who Will Win: Natalie Portman (Kent), Emma Stone (Brian and Richard)
Who Should Win: Emma Stone (all three)
Kent: For some reason, the Oscars LOVE biopics. They also love movies about politics. Combine those two and add in an Oscar nominated actress in Natalie Portman? BOOM! Formula for Oscar gold. But Emma stone was INCREDIBLE in La La Land. She made me weep. And that's a good thing.
Brian: I’m still angry that Amy Adams isn’t in this category for Arrival. Makes zero sense whatsoever. Regardless, I find it hard to believe that this isn’t Stone’s year and deservedly so. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Who Will Win: Mahershala Ali (All three)
Who Should Win: Mahershala Ali (All three)
Richard: Dev Patel is great in Lion, but isn't that a leading role? Ali delivers the quintessential supporting performance of the year. Mesmerizing.
Brian: There’s this great bit in The Office, maybe season five, in which Michael Scott says to a rival branch manager, “If you so much as harm one hair on Stanley’s head…we will burn this place to the ground.” Richard and I joke about this all the time. It’s such an earnest moment in spite of its insanity. Well, if the Academy gives this award to anyone but Mahershala Ali…we will burn this place to the ground. Ali gave the best performance of the year in any category for my money and it is UNFATHOMABLE that anyone else would come out with the trophy. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Who Will Win: Octavia Spencer (Kent), Viola Davis (Brian and Richard)
Who Should Win: Viola Davis (All three)
Richard: To me, along with Chazelle, this is the biggest lock of the night--and totally deserved!
Brian: I’m not quite ready to riot over a potential Viola Davis snubbing as I am for Mahershala Ali but it’s very close. In his long, illustrious career, how many people (men or women), have gone toe to toe with Denzel Washington and come out on top? Davis BURIED Denzel in Fences and also she is beautiful and regal and eloquent and I just love her so DON’T SCREW THIS UP, ACADEMY. 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
What Will Win: La La Land (All three)
What Should Win: Hell of High Water (All three)
Kent: Hard to imagine La La Land not sweeping every single award, especially for Chazelle's sharp and swift writing. But Hell or High Water combined action, suspense, drama, and comedy so well that it was the most memorable script of the year in my opinion.
Richard: I'd love to see Hell or High Water get one win on the evening, and I think this is its best shot. But I think La La Land nabs this one.
Brian: To me, this is the toughest category in the field. 20th Century Women wasn’t my thing but all four of the other contenders have a claim here. I’m 90% sure La La Land comes out with the trophy and can’t complain about that. But Taylor Sheridan’s script for Hell or High Water is an absolute masterwork. 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
What Will Win: Moonlight (All three)
What Should Win: Arrival (Kent and Brian), Moonlight (Richard)
Kent: Arrival was adapted from a short story into one of the most imaginative science fiction films of all time, but Moonlight brought every emotion into each and every line, and it felt the most authentic and realistic when it came to the dialogue.
Brian: As good as Moonlight is (and while it lurks as a potential La La Land spoiler in several categories), I actually think the script is the “weakest” part. Still an “A”, mind you, but definitely not what I’m going to remember about the film. Arrival, however, is brilliantly written and the distilling of extremely complex concepts into something anyone can understand without losing any of the film’s intelligence is a stroke of genius.

Top 10 Movies of 2016

In a perfect world, this piece would debut on January 2nd every year after I’d had the opportunity and time to see every significant movie from the previous year’s slate. In reality, I still haven’t had a chance to see a couple of the more important movies from 2016 (Lion, Silence, Jackie) and it’s basically February. Such is the lot of a pseudo-movie critic without access to the magic of screeners (and abundant free time). Podcast listeners will have no doubt by now listened to our annual end of the year recap and thus, you likely know my top 10 list better than I do. But having spent the last decade or so putting out mediocre content such as this, it seems wrong to forego publishing a written record of my favorite films from the year. You know, in case the Library of Congress comes a’ callin’. As always, the following top 10 list is a combination of what I would consider the “best” movies of the year and my “favorite” movies of the year. That is to say, my top 10 list would be different from my Oscar nominations list, at least in terms of order if not content altogether. Bear that in mind.

 HONORABLE MENTION: Captain Fantastic (Viggo Mortensen, George MacKay, Frank Langella)
As an uber-hippie dad raising his flock of children in the forest, Mortensen delivers his most human performance and provides the stability for the film that his character tries to give his family. As the story transpires and you see the ways in which he and his family are woefully but blissfully unprepared for the real world, you run through the gamut of emotions, finally settling on some form of “Well, good for them I guess.” It’s quirky and fun and heartful and features a stellar cover of “Sweet Child O’ Mine” which is all I’ve ever wanted in a film.

 10. Manchester By the Sea (Casey Affleck, Lucas Hedges, Michelle Williams) and Moonlight (Mahershala Ali, Naomie Harris, Ashton Sanders)
I grouped these two together because they have two very significant common traits: Both are FANTASTIC films and I never really want to see either of them again. To be clear, Manchester By the Sea is by far the more depressing film whereas Moonlight tries (to some level of success) to leave the viewer with a sense of hope. Both, however, put you through the emotional wringer and I didn’t come out of either film demanding everyone around me go out and see these movies post haste. They’re HARD movies to watch, made even more powerful by two of the finest performances I saw this year (Ali in Moonlight and Affleck in Manchester). Thus, a top 10 list would be incomplete without this pair but wow, both films will push you.

 9. Pete’s Dragon (Bryce Dallas Howard, Oakes Fegley, Robert Redford)
Pete’s Dragon is sort of the antithesis of Manchester and Moonlight: it doesn’t necessarily amount to much in terms of significance but wow, do you feel good coming out of the theater. I haven’t watched the original Pete’s Dragon in two decades and I was okay with never having the occasion to think about this property again. David Lowery, though, turns this into one of the must-see family movies of the year, complete with a handful of solid performances and some of the finest camera work I’ve seen in a long time.

 8. The Jungle Book (Ben Kingsley, Bill Murray, Neel Sethi)
The Jungle Book and Pete’s Dragon bear many similarities (without mentioning their Disney connection) but I’d say that the former has a little more weight to throw around than the latter. The complexity of piecing this movie together into a cohesive whole is perhaps the most underrated task of the year. Jon Favreau has a brilliant sense for scale in these big movies and truly, this is his masterpiece. Beautifully rendered “characters” combined with a gorgeous backdrop and a child actor whose work against a green screen is tremendous, all things considered. The source material doesn’t hurt but Favreau raises it to new levels.

 7. The Lobster (Colin Farrell, Rachel Weisz, John C. Reilly)
I had The Lobster higher on this list originally and took it down a peg based on its rewatchability. With most of these movies, I expect I’ll appreciate them even more with future viewings. The Lobster, though, is such a unique, weird movie that I’m not sure will hold up down the line. But for now, it remains one of the more singularly memorable experience of the year. Its bizarre premise (a future society in which single adults are turned into the animal of their choice if they fail to find a partner) will be a stopping point for some viewers but it works SO WELL within that weirdness and oh, the brilliance of Colin Farrell is unmistakable in a darkly comedic, tragic turn.

 6. A Monster Calls (Lewis MacDougall, Felicity Jones, Liam Neeson)
The hands down winner for “Most Overlooked Movie of the Year”, A Monster Calls is a gut-wrenchingly beautiful adaptation of a gut-wrenchingly beautiful book. Seriously, readers, I know I’m an easy movie crier and choke up at almost anything emotional. But this is like a whole new ballgame. The story (a monster visits a pre-teen boy as he struggles with the ramifications of his mother’s terminal cancer) is delicately pieced together to allow the main character (MacDougall) to organically go through stretches of anger, depression, sadness, denial, and acceptance and the viewer “gets” to follow along from an unsafe distance. I was alone in the theater when I saw this one and I’m very glad because of all the ugly crying.

 5. Everybody Wants Some!! (Blake Jenner, Tyler Hoechlin, Ryan Guzman)
An early frontrunner for Best of the Year, Everybody Wants Some got swallowed up and forgotten in the back half of the year, as tends to happen with Spring releases. Even still, it’s an insanely enjoyable film and fits right alongside Richard Linklater’s other, more celebrated works. It’s a simple film without much in the way of narrative or agenda but this is exactly what makes it work and will aid in its rewatchability.

 4. Arrival (Amy Adams, Jeremy Renner, Forest Whitaker)
High-brow sci-fi is VERY difficult to pull off correctly. It is by its very nature extremely complex and usually somewhere in the unpacking of the design of said complexity, the narrative either loses steam or misses a step and stumbles. Now, listen, Arrival is not going to be a huge success with all parties. It’s not easy to follow along and if you’re not completely into the mystery element and the slow unfolding, you’re going to get lost or bored or both. But I’m so incredibly impressed with the way Denis Villeneuve put Arrival together. It is contained and focused, it is beautifully shot, and Villeneuve spins together this incredibly detailed plot in a way that lets each piece of information sink in, allowing the viewer to keep up with what’s happening. Arrival feels like the most realistic alien encounter movie yet made and oh, by the way, Amy Adams gives the best female lead performance of the year and it’s an absolute crime that she wasn’t nominated for an Oscar.

 3. Moana (Auli’I Cravalho, Dwayne Johnson, Rachel House)
Moana is the kind of movie where you find out someone hates it and you get mad at them. There are currently 10 negative reviews for Moana on Rotten Tomatoes and I am working on coming up with the appropriate revenge for each of these critics. If you don’t think Moana is all that great, that’s fine, to each his/her own. But if you think this is actually a bad movie, I’m sorry, but we have to fight, probably in some sort of steel cage. I honestly don’t have a single criticism of Moana. The story, the animation, the music, the voice work, it’s all brilliant and yeah, I’m biased because sometimes my son sings “Away Away” to himself when he’s trying to go to sleep. Fight me, I don’t care.

 2. La La Land (Ryan Gosling, Emma Stone, John Legend)
I went back and forth with my top two, trying to decide where to rank each. Ultimately I slotted La La Land second because…I don’t know, probably just to be contrary? I’m openly anti-musical but this one gripped me from scene one to the final shot. I’ve seen criticism of the actual singing and dancing within La La Land (a fair assessment) but for me, perhaps because I’m anti-musical, this actually makes the movie work much better. La La Land exists in a real world in which songs and dances butt in from time to time rather than a world of song and dance that only occasionally touches on reality and I LOVE that difference. The soundtrack fits the film perfectly and Damien Chazelle demonstrates his mastery of his art at the ripe old age of 32 (kill me, please). Gosling and Stone, however, keep the movie on key (sorry, sorry) with their impeccable chemistry and general likability. The conclusion may strike a melancholy note but it’s a fitting end and one that will stick with me for quite some time.

 1. Hell or High Water (Chris Pine, Ben Foster, Jeff Bridges)
I’ve been shoveling coal for the Hell or High Water train since I walked out of my viewing in August and I won’t stop now. I love this movie. There’s not one thing about it that I would change. From the landscapes and backdrops to the razor-sharp script (Taylor Sheridan, y’all; take note of that name if you haven’t already), the pointed message to the outstanding performances, Hell or High Water is a perfect movie. This is mesmerizing slow burn, a quiet movie filled with nuance and subtlety that explodes into fits of violence with dramatic effect. Bridges is incredible but we all knew that, anyway. We did not, however, all know that Pine is also incredible and Hell or High Water shows off his range better than ever before. Simply put, for my money, this is the best straight-up cops and robbers movie since Heat.

Top 10 Performances of 2016

Typically, it is this list that gives me more heartburn than those dedicated to the best and worst MOVIES of the year. I am extremely performance oriented; that is, when watching a movie, I tend to notice the acting first, the story/narrative/script second, and the directorial choices third. A great performance can overshadow a weaker script for me whereas a flat performance can deter my enjoyment of a great story. But in all honesty, 2016 wasn’t exactly rife with great performances, especially when it came to leading men and women. Plenty of “good”, not a lot of “great”. That said, those performances that were great were really great; like, historically great. It should be noted, too, that this list pertains to my own personal favorite performances of the year, not necessarily the “best.” By my count, seven of the 13 names mentioned below received Oscar nominations, a couple received other major award nominations, and the rest saw little in the way of award show fanfare. So keep that in mind as you peruse.  

HONORABLE MENTION: Craig Robinson, “Curtis Gentry” - Morris From America

Morris From America is a perfectly fine family dramedy with a unique setting (an African American widower and his young son move to Germany for work) that I hope finds an audience on Netflix somewhere down the line. It is a small, subtle movie and the pairing of Robinson with newcomer Markees Christmas works organically. The movie concludes with a beautiful, heartfelt conversation between father and son that serves as the cherry on top of the sundae for both the movie and Robinson’s performance. Robinson had me in tears, almost out of nowhere, with a speech that brings the entire movie together in two minutes.

10. Viggo Mortensen, “Ben” - Captain Fantastic

It’s been a very long time since I enjoyed Mortensen in a movie. He’s a very talented actor, obviously, but he often chooses unappealing roles in movies that don’t exactly speak to me. Captain Fantastic, however, is a gem and it is Mortensen, as the patriarch of a hippie family living off the grid, that brings the whole thing together. He runs the gamut of emotions with ease, often jumping back and forth between strong family leader and vulnerable man-child on the brink of self-destruction in a matter of minutes.

9. Hugo Weaving, “Tom Doss” - Hacksaw Ridge

Weaving’s is the smallest role of any on this list but while leading man Andrew Garfield is receiving all the award buzz, it is Weaving who, I think, gives Hacksaw Ridge its heart. It’s difficult to play a hard man torn apart by the hell of war but it’s even more difficult to make that man a sympathetic figure instead of simply pitiable. Weaving shines the most in the moments when Doss painfully forces himself to push through the memories that have driven him to the drink in order to fight for his son’s life.

8. Janell Monae, “Mary Jackson” – Hidden Figures

The strength of Hidden Figures (beyond the source material) lies in the incredible performances from virtually every member of the cast. Tarajai P. Henson and Octavia Spencer have (deservedly) garnered a great deal of attention this award season but a few days out from my showing, I’m still blown away by Monae. She gives so much life to Mary Jackson’s cement-like resolve and makes that character so ridiculously likeable. Monae is asked to do quite a lot to keep the film moving, a risky proposition given her limited experience as an actress, but she constantly pops off the screen and makes the most of the huge opportunity put before her.

7. Amy Adams, “Louise Banks” - Arrival

There might have been “better” female performances in 2016 than what Amy Adams turned in here (and I have two ahead of her on my own list) but I don’t think any of them were asked to carry the weight that Adams took on. To be honest, we just don’t get female performances like this very often, not because there aren’t loads of talented actresses available, but because typically this kind of role is written exclusively for males. She is THE lead in a big movie from a rising star director and she absolutely BRINGS IT in every scene, carrying a great script and a complicated concept to new heights it wouldn’t have achieved otherwise. As a longtime Adams superfan, I’m thrilled she was able to top of the year with this so that we can all maybe forget about her taking a bath with Superman for no reason.

6. Chris Pine and Jeff Bridges, “Toby Howard and Marcus Hamilton” - Hell or High Water

The first of two pairings on this list, I couldn’t pick one over the other and felt like I needed to recognize how their characters played off each other to make Hell or High Water what it is. While they only share one incredible scene, the cat and mouse game between cop and robber haunts the entirety of the film in a way I haven’t seen since Heat. Everyone knows Jeff Bridges is great and you won’t find a more respected actor in Hollywood. It is Pine, then, who turns heads, giving a performance that most people, critics and audiences alike, didn’t know he was capable of. There’s not much flash or sizzle to either of their performances but there is a ton of substance, with each of them one upping the other scene after scene, culminating in their final confrontation.

5. Colin Farrell, “David” - The Lobster

I’ve gone back and forth over the last few weeks, trying to decide where The Lobster itself will find up in my end-of-year rankings. But one thing I’ve never questioned is the brilliance of Colin Farrell’s performance. This is one of the weirdest, quirkiest movies I’ve ever seen and Farrell embraces the strangeness of it all with an easy grace and eloquence. He matches every dark and head-scratching turn within the movie with equal parts humor and emotional resonance and in doing so, he sells you on the reality of an absurd universe. Stop sleeping on Colin Farrell, you guys.

4. Emma Stone and Ryan Gosling, “Mia and Sebastian” - La La Land

Even more so than with Pine and Bridges, to split Stone and Gosling on this list would be a crime. It’s no secret that I love La La Land and I think writer/director Damien Chazelle is an actual genius who may well be THE face of “Hollywood Behind the Camera” for the next decade or two. But for me it is undeniable that a large part of Chazelle’s brilliance is tied into his casting. La La Land probably works with Emma Watson and Miles Teller (the original choices for Mia and Sebastian) but I don’t think it sings (please forgive the pun) the way it does with Stone and Gosling. Stone’s performance is the flashier of the two while Gosling remains more subdued, giving La La Land a stronghold for its consistent returns to its grounded, heartbreakingly realistic roots. Their chemistry is perfect and makes you pine for a yearly pairing in literally any setting they choose to work within.

3. Casey Affleck, “Lee Chandler” - Manchester By the Sea

This was quietly one of the most difficult roles of the year. Lee Chandler is an emotionally crippled (justifiably so) townie with a penchant for self-destruction who gets into bar fights in order to feel something. Affleck takes those characteristics, leans into them, and somehow pushes Chandler into becoming not only sympathetic but downright likeable. In doing so, he makes Manchester By the Sea so much more meaningful (and brutally difficult to sit through) than it would have been with simply a “good” performance. Affleck is always good, even in bad movies, but his work here is a showcase of his unending talent, a master class in realism and the complexity of emotion.

2. Viola Davis, “Rose Maxson” - Fences

We are lucky to live in a time which features a great many terrific and talented actresses who are finally getting a few more opportunities to shine. But I ask you, dear readers, are any of them better than Viola Davis? Answer: No. None of them. For proof of this statement, look no further than Fences, a very good movie with very real flaws made whole by Davis’s grace and power. Denzel Washington might be the greatest actor of his generation and Viola BURIED HIM on that screen, you guys. She reaches into the depths of her soul for both the times when she is required to be quiet and the times when she’s allowed to unload and it is truly a sight to behold. Give her the dadgum Oscar now and don’t stop giving her Oscars until her whole house is covered in golden statues.  

1. Mahershala Ali, “Juan” - Moonlight

Mahershala Ali is having a moment, dear readers, and I couldn’t be happier. Having plugged away in smaller roles that were honestly beneath him for the last 15 years, 2016 saw him finally get a chance to shine. Between House of Cards, Luke Cage, and Hidden Figures, it was difficult to miss Ali and even more difficult to ignore him once you saw him. He’s one of those guys who can say more in a silent head nod than most actors can in an entire film of dialogue. But his turn in Moonlight…well that’s something special. He is the core of the film (a film that, by the way, will be a major contender for Best Picture) and each of his scenes is packed to the brim with quiet power and barely contained emotion. I didn’t expect to get emotionally wrapped up in Moonlight but 20 minutes in, when Juan speaks to seven-year-old Little with delicacy and respect, I found myself welling up and instantly attached to both characters. It is a performance for the ages that should ultimately get Ali an Oscar and hopefully launch his career forward into the next stratosphere.